To get some sense for how often the northern lights can be seen over Iceland it is great to watch this animated aurora borealis forecast video. You can see how they more and less come and go every 1-2 days. This should give you some ideas on how to plan your aurora borealis tour to Iceland. If you just stay in Iceland for 2 days it gives some possibilities, but it is wiser to stay at least for 1 week. Even if you can see that solar activity zone come and go in this animated video, it is important to know that there are of course far more factors that are important to think about if you are planning to see them e.g. the weather can simply be bad, clouds coverage and when in the day you are looking for them.

How accurate is a aurora borealis forecast?


The forecast of solar activity are quite accurate but how the weather will be when you plan to see them is more difficult to estimate. In addition you never know precisely when they show up and sometimes it only last for couple of minutes and then disappear for some hours. This all means it is very hard to plan to see the northern lights – especially when you are trying really really hard. It almost seems like they like to tease humans a bit.

How types of aurora borealis forecast do we have?

There are three main catagories of aurora borealis forecast and the scientists use different methods for each of them.

1) The primary forecast is the best estimate you can get for the upcoming 4 to 7 days. It is great to use this with the weather forecast to plan when to go and see the northern lights in relatively short term planing.

2) The short term forecast is a measurements of the solar wind. It is made at a satellite that is appr. one hour away from the sun. Check out this aurora borealis forecast when you are at home and you are planning when you should wake and go outside into the cold dark.

3) The long-term forecast i measurements from the SWPC NOAA. It is a estimate of the max level for each of the solar rotation period e.g. next 28 days. When you plan to visit another country to see the northern lights this is the aurora borealis forecast to use.